Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

All registered calls, verification criteria and revisions are retained. Linked reports may have newer editions; read historical calls with their registration dates and revision notes.

1. #56HitMonthly outlook2026-08-28Evidence / revision recorded

   Neutral-to-positive drift. Options price ±13.5% for 30 days ($161–$211); same-day option volume P/C at 0.52 — directional flow is call-heavy; no earnings event in the window (Q3 prints ~early Nov)

   1-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   realised range vs. $161–$211

   Benchmark / verification source

   chain [C], calendar

   Subsequent evidence & revisions2026-10-13

   From 2026-08-28 to 09-30, PLTR's intraday low was $164.55 (09-10) and its high $194.68 (09-24), with closes between $165.86 and $192.59: the whole path stayed inside $161–$211, so this is a hit. The end-September close of $187.05 was up 0.6% from the 08-27 close of $185.93. Source: Nasdaq daily prices [A]. Registered with the tiered outlooks and settled on 2026-10-13.

2. #14OpenCore call2026-08-28

   The growth engine has shifted from volume to price. Net dollar retention, at 157% after four consecutive quarterly increases, is the earliest observable indicator; its shift is expected to precede a revenue slowdown by about 12 months.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   NDR stays below 140 for two consecutive quarters while revenue growth has not yet slowed, meaning the lead relationship exists but its direction was misread; or NDR remains at least 150 while revenue growth still drops below 70%, falsifying the lead relationship itself.

   Benchmark / verification source

   None (structural judgment)

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

3. #15OpenCore call2026-08-28

   The current price assumes persistence never seen historically. Reverse DCF implies 32.9% compound growth for ten years, with terminal value accounting for 75%. Positive expected value comes from the right tail, not a margin of safety.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   Initial FY2027 growth guidance is at least +55%, confirming the upside path and the start of the previously unprecedented outcome; or the stock falls below $150, returning the implied compound growth rate to the range of comparable precedents.

   Benchmark / verification source

   S&P 500

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

4. #13Too earlyAnnual rating2026-08-28Evidence / revision recorded

   Overweight. The 12-month target is $214, probability-weighted across $119 / $208 / $320 using an EV/sales engine, or 14.9% above the August 27, 2026 close of $185.93. Base-case revenue of $12.2 billion matches sell-side consensus, with a 40× exit multiple.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   NDR stays below 140 for two consecutive quarters, guidance merely meets expectations in a quarter, or US commercial growth falls below 70% without a rating downgrade under the transition rules; or the 12-month absolute return falls below −10%, into the Underweight band.

   Benchmark / verification source

   S&P 500

   Subsequent evidence & revisions2026-08-28

   Voided and re-registered because of a transcription error. This entry used pre-adversarial-audit draft figures: target $214, scenarios $119 / $208 / $320 and upside +14.9%. The audit found that the scenario engine incorrectly used 2.42 billion shares. Recalculation using the actual weighted diluted count of 2.569 billion produced the published target of $201, scenarios $112 / $196 / $302 and upside +8.2%. The correct conclusion was registered as a new entry. This entry is excluded from hit-rate calculation under the ledger rule: do not rewrite history; void and re-register corrections.

5. #16OpenAnnual rating2026-08-28

   Overweight. The 12-month target is $201, probability-weighted across $112 / $196 / $302 using EV/sales and 2.569 billion weighted diluted shares, or 8.2% above the August 27, 2026 close of $185.93. Base revenue of $12.2 billion matches sell-side consensus. A 40× exit EV/sales multiple implies enterprise value; adding net cash and dividing by shares yields equity value per share.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   NDR stays below 140 for two consecutive quarters, guidance merely meets expectations in a quarter, or US commercial growth falls below 70% without a rating downgrade under the transition rules; or the 12-month absolute return falls below −10%, into the Underweight band.

   Benchmark / verification source

   S&P 500

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

6. #57OpenQuarterly outlook2026-08-28

   Three base-case checkpoints: NDR ≥150; a third FY2026 guidance raise (eight quarters of beats make in-line a negative catalyst); US commercial TCV/RDV holding triple-digit growth

   3-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   Q3 release and deck

   Benchmark / verification source

   §2, guidance history

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

7. #4OpenCore call2026-08-13

   Non-consensus finding 1: reversing the deferred-tax valuation allowance will materially increase the reported tax rate at some future point, a factor generally absent from current market earnings forecasts.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   If consensus EPS forecasts are not revised down after the company announces a valuation-allowance reversal, the market had already incorporated it and the finding is invalid.

   Benchmark / verification source

   Consensus EPS forecasts

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

8. #5OpenCore call2026-08-13

   Non-consensus finding 2: the company ended share repurchases in January 2026 after using only 14% of the authorization. Against ample cash and free cash flow approaching a doubling, this is a tacit management statement about its own share price.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   This interpretation is falsified if the company resumes buybacks within 12 months and executes them materially, with cumulative execution exceeding 50% of the authorized amount.

   Benchmark / verification source

   Company announcements

   Subsequent evidence & revisions

   No settlement evidence recorded yet.

9. #2Too earlyCore call2026-08-13Evidence / revision recorded

   The return distribution is highly asymmetric: +40.3% upside versus −48.0% downside, with a heavier left tail. Position sizing, rather than a directional call alone, is the appropriate lens for this stock.

   12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

   Verification / falsification criteria

   The asymmetry judgment is falsified if realized movements over 12 months are right-skewed, with upside substantially exceeding downside, or if maximum drawdown is materially below 30%.

   Benchmark / verification source

   The stock's own price distribution

   Subsequent evidence & revisions2026-08-28

   The distribution assessment changed with the recalculated engine. The three v2 scenarios produce a right-skewed distribution with +72.3% upside and −35.9% downside, replacing the original heavier left tail of +40.3% / −48.0%. The position-sizing implication remains in the v2 risk-budget framework; the original statement is treated as superseded.

10. #1Too earlyAnnual rating2026-08-13Evidence / revision recorded

    Neutral / Hold. The 12-month probability-weighted target is $167 on shares outstanding, or $155 fully diluted. Fundamentals rank among the world's leading software businesses, but 66.8× price-to-sales already assumes near-perfect execution for the next five years.

    12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

    Verification / falsification criteria

    A 12-month excess return versus the S&P 500 outside the −10% to +5% range makes the rating incorrect.

    Benchmark / verification source

    S&P 500

    Subsequent evidence & revisions2026-08-28

    Superseded by the fully rebuilt second edition before the 12-month window ended. The scenario engine changed from price-to-sales per share to EV/sales and enterprise value, avoiding distortion from a 1.3% tax rate. The rating rose from Neutral to Overweight and the target from $167 to $214. Chapter 18 of v2 explains each difference; the new edition bears the evidentiary burden. The price rose 8.7% over the intervening 10 trading days; the upgrade was not driven by price.

11. #3OpenCore call2026-08-13

    Year-on-year US commercial revenue growth is the thesis's critical variable: staying above 100% supports the bull case; falling below 70% triggers the bear case.

    12-month horizonLinked report: Palantir (PLTR) Deep Dive · 2nd Edition

    Verification / falsification criteria

    US commercial revenue growth below 70% year over year in any quarter invalidates the base-case assumptions.

    Benchmark / verification source

    Company quarterly earnings reports

    Subsequent evidence & revisions

    No settlement evidence recorded yet.